The near win is more dangerous than the loss

Most investors expect the hardest moments to arrive when markets fall or results are slow. That is not when strategies break. They break when progress feels close.

I played every game in a season and missed selection for the grand final. The team won without me.

That was the closest I had ever been to something I had chased since I was a kid. And it was the most dangerous moment of my career. Not because we lost. Because we won.

When the outcome feels that close, something shifts. The temptation is not to give up. It is to change course. To push harder, move faster, try something different. I considered walking away from the team entirely.

I stayed. We won a premiership the following year.

What those fifteen years taught me is that proximity creates pressure. After every near miss, the pull to change the plan was stronger than after any loss. Losses are clear. You absorb them and keep going. Near wins are ambiguous. They invite the question: what would have happened if I had done something different?

That question is where strategies unravel.

Where investors feel it

The same pattern shows up in property portfolios, usually at three points.

A small equity lift creates urgency to extract. A strong year creates pressure to upgrade or add something before the window closes. Someone else's result creates doubt about your own pace.

None of these are irrational responses. They feel productive. But they are emotional, and acting on them tends to interrupt compounding at exactly the wrong moment.

The trade-off is this: short-term relief versus long-term durability. Extracting equity early, selling to upgrade, or shifting markets mid-cycle can each feel like the right move. In isolation, some of them might be. But when strategy shifts every time the outcome feels near, the portfolio becomes a series of half-finished plans. Entry costs compound. Friction increases. Conviction weakens.

The asset is rarely the problem. The timeline keeps moving.

The rule that holds

Do not change strategy based on how close the outcome feels.

Judge decisions by the quality of inputs you can repeat for the next decade. If the fundamentals that justified the purchase still hold, the information set has not changed. Feeling close to a result is not new information.

Near wins test durability more than losses do. Losses are processed and absorbed. Near wins keep the pressure on. They sit in the background and create noise at the exact moment patience is the only thing being asked of you.

Compounding only works if you can hold long enough for it to do its job.

If you are feeling pressure to change course right now, the useful question is not what to change. It is whether the inputs that drove the original decision have actually changed, or whether the pressure is coming from the outcome feeling close.

Those are different problems. They require different responses.

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*The negative gearing and capital gains tax changes referenced above were announced as part of the 2026–27 Federal Budget and are proposed but not yet legislated. Confirm the current status of these measures with a relevant licensed professional before making any decisions.

Disclaimer: The information in this article is general in nature and does not take into account your personal objectives, financial situation, or needs. It is not financial, legal, or tax advice. The Nelis Group accepts no liability for actions taken based on this content. You should seek independent advice from a relevant licensed professional before making any decisions and always confirm the latest rules and thresholds with your state revenue office or relevant authority.