Why rental growth figures are already old news

A rental growth figure gets published each quarter and treated as news. It's usually a confirmation. The vacancy data behind it had already shown the same thing, months before the number existed.

Cotality's latest data has Ballarat as Victoria's strongest performing regional market for annual rental growth to July 2026, at 5.1 per cent. Next to numbers coming out of other states, that's a modest figure. This isn't a growth story. Ballarat is also a market we buy in for clients, which is part of why it's the example here rather than a market with a bigger number.

SQM Research data shows Ballarat's vacancy rate tightened sharply through 2024 and into 2025, moving from a loose rental market to a tight one well before Cotality's growth figure was published. That tightening predates the negative gearing changes legislated in June 2026, so the pattern was already underway before the policy shift, not caused by it.

Vacancy tends to move first. When vacant rental stock tightens, demand is outpacing supply in that market, and rent growth catches up later.

Why vacancy moves first

This is one market's numbers, used to show a pattern that applies wherever you're holding or buying, not just here.

What tightening vacancy means for buyers and holders

Tight vacancy is good news if you already hold in that market. If you're trying to buy into it, the same conditions usually mean less stock on the market and more competition to secure something.‍

One number is not a trend

One strong result doesn't prove a sustained shift on its own. It can reflect a temporary supply gap as easily as a structural change. Vacancy trends over multiple periods are what actually show direction, and a single rental growth figure can overstate or understate what's happening.

When a rental growth headline lands, check the vacancy trend that came before it rather than reacting to the number itself. Tightening vacancy means the growth figure is catching up to something already underway. Flat vacancy means treat the result with more caution.

Worth asking: what is vacancy doing in the market you're holding in, or the one you're weighing up?

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Disclaimer: The information in this article is general in nature and does not take into account your personal objectives, financial situation, or needs. It is not financial, legal, or tax advice. The Nelis Group accepts no liability for actions taken based on this content. You should seek independent advice from a relevant licensed professional before making any decisions and always confirm the latest rules and thresholds with your state revenue office or relevant authority.